Sg2 COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator
Sg2’s COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator is a scenario planning tool that calculates market-specific, age-adjusted projections of non-ICU bed, ICU and ventilator demand, based on varying transmission rates observed internationally as initial disease spread, mitigation and containment strategies play out.
The calculator incorporates infectious disease modeling specific to COVID-19 and has been vetted by hospital systems, Vizient biostatisticians, and epidemiologic and pandemic experts. In contrast, other tools available to project bed demand have more limited practical planning utility or do not incorporate the variable timing and strength of transmission spread based on COVID-19 infectious disease modeling. Worse yet, some may be modeling impact incorrectly. For instance, use of current hospitalization rates among positive cases to extrapolate for an entire population has resulted in faulty data that could hamstring efforts.
Sg2’s model enables users to:
- Apply extreme, aggressive, moderate and mild scenarios of disease spread, adjusting infection rates to simulate the impact of COVID-19 transmission as well as this transmission when impacted by social distancing measures, testing and contact tracing, and other public health and policy initiatives.
- Localize inputs to reflect service area demographics, applying age-adjusted admission rates.
- Input bed, ICU and ventilator supply at the regional, market and organizational level for localized shortage/surplus evaluation.
- Track capacity impact over time.
Download the Calculator and Related Resources:
- Sg2 COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator, V5.1 (XLSX | Posted July 1, 2020)
- Calculator Methodology Documentation, V5.1 (PDF | Posted July 1, 2020)
- Overview Video (YouTube)
- Frequently Asked Questions (PDF)
- Sg2 Expert Insight: Sg2 Releases COVID-19 Surge Demand Calculator (PDF)
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