June 24, 2019

Sg2 Releases 2019 Forecast: Site of Care Shifts Will Accelerate Across the Continuum, Complex Disease Demand Dominates Inpatient

Skokie, IL – In its 2019–2029 Impact of Change® (IoC) National Demand Forecast, Sg2 anticipates three major trends to dominate the coming decade. Increasing complex disease demand will cause inpatient length of stay to increase as admissions flatten. Shifts in sites of care, whether from inpatient (IP) to outpatient (OP) or across the ambulatory landscape, will accelerate. Increased disruption across low-acuity services will reshape how and where care is delivered.

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Over the coming decade, Sg2 advises hospitals and health systems to prepare for increased complexity in the inpatient and outpatient settings, with high demand for specialty visits, procedures and diagnostics. Providers with an integrated System of CARE, timely access, and strong competencies in patient navigation and care coordination will be optimally positioned to capture growth. Inevitable disruption in lower-acuity care will require organizations to develop patient-centered offerings leveraging virtual technology. Dynamic shifts in site of care across the continuum will drive fundamental change in planning for providers’ asset portfolios, staffing needs and strategic partnerships. Below, more specific details from the IoC National Demand Forecast are provided.

Inpatient Discharges & Hospital Campus Utilization

  • Patient activity on the hospital campus will increase by 8% overall, driven by observation visit and hospital OP surgery growth, despite flat (+1%) adult IP discharges. Factors influencing IP discharges include declining orthopedic, cancer and gynecology surgeries, balanced with growing chronic disease, sepsis and stroke admissions.
  • Chronic disease admissions (eg, congestive heart failure) are projected to grow 9% over the next 10 years due to an increase in Medicare enrollees.

Outpatient Volumes

  • Robust 15% growth is predicted across the entire OP continuum, driven by multiple factors such as demographics and complex care shifting to the ambulatory setting.
  • Ambulatory surgery centers will see even greater procedural growth (+29% increase in OP surgeries over 10 years) led by orthopedic and spine surgical procedures, although pace and timing vary widely across markets.
  • Emergency department (ED) visits will flatten (+1%) over the decade, as modest emergent visit growth offsets shifts of non-emergent visits out of the ED.
  • Care pathway disruption for lower-acuity, primary care services is expected as new market entrants (eg, Amazon, Teledoc, Apple, NURX) impact how and where people seek care for common conditions.

About the Impact of Change Forecast

Annually, Sg2 releases the latest health care projections from its proprietary IoC National Demand Forecast, which has a proven track record of accurately anticipating critical health care trends, including the historic inpatient declines beginning in 2008. While the national IoC Forecast is valuable for understanding health care universal trends, Sg2 also recognizes that all health care is local, so our forecast is anchored to a data-driven methodology for market level forecasting as well. Hospitals and health systems across the country utilize the IoC Forecast to help them understand their local market and organizational trends to formulate the best strategies to meet their community’s needs. For more information contact connect@sg2.com.

About Sg2

Sg2, a Vizient company, revolutionized the understanding of future health care demand with the introduction of the Impact of Change forecast in 2001. Today, Sg2 is the industry’s premier health care strategy advisory firm, helping organizations solve for the challenge of achieving smart growth by leveraging our unique combination of insights, expertise, and analytics.

Headquartered in Skokie, IL, with offices in Denver and Los Angeles, Sg2 serves health care providers across the spectrum, including integrated delivery networks, academic medical centers, independent community hospitals and life sciences companies. Learn more about Sg2 at www.sg2.com.

Joel Toledo
Assoc. Principal
jtoledo@sg2.com, connect@sg2.com

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